DCTH: "The stock is expected to be added to the Russell 2000 index in June. That would result in buying about 4 million DCTH shares for the index. That is heavy buying considering that only about 33 million shares are outstanding, and only half of the outstanding shares are available for public trading"
On Yahoo I see shares outstanding are: 34.83M and the Float is: 33.86M.
You say: "only half of the outstanding shares are available for public trading". That is the same as Float, right ? So it seems Yahoo data is very different comparing to what you are saying.
My understanding is: you say Float is only around 16.5M.
Russell 2000 i Free-float capitalization-weighted. So that means Float value is used.
In that case it would be 33.86M if Yahoo data is correct.
The float is total shares - shares held by insiders. Shares available for trading in the context that I was using, meaning shares available for adding to Russell Index, are total shares - insiders shares and shares held by institutions.
I did not realize that the stock was being dropped from the Russell Value index and that this would result in funds tracking the value index selling.
This revenue run-rate is based on treating roughly 684 patients (i.e., $127M divided by $187K per treatment).
• Expense Outlook:
o SG&A expenses are expected to rise by 60% over 2024 levels.
o R&D expenses are forecasted to increase by 150%.
o In total, these expenses are projected to be about $85M (with $50M in SG&A and $35M in R&D).
• Profitability for FY26: With an estimated FY26 revenue of $127M and a gross margin of $107M, after deducting expenses of $85M, the EBITDA would be roughly $22M.
• Additional Trials and Upside: The other two trials—which target a larger TAM—aren't expected to complete approval until around 2030.
Given this timeline, there seems to be limited upside relative to the current market capitalization of $584M, and revenue growth might flatten from FY27 onward
Fair enough, but consider that DCTH has been beating estimates and the company is becoming an acquisition target for a larger player that could expedite scaling.
DCTH: "The stock is expected to be added to the Russell 2000 index in June. That would result in buying about 4 million DCTH shares for the index. That is heavy buying considering that only about 33 million shares are outstanding, and only half of the outstanding shares are available for public trading"
On Yahoo I see shares outstanding are: 34.83M and the Float is: 33.86M.
You say: "only half of the outstanding shares are available for public trading". That is the same as Float, right ? So it seems Yahoo data is very different comparing to what you are saying.
My understanding is: you say Float is only around 16.5M.
Russell 2000 i Free-float capitalization-weighted. So that means Float value is used.
In that case it would be 33.86M if Yahoo data is correct.
The float is total shares - shares held by insiders. Shares available for trading in the context that I was using, meaning shares available for adding to Russell Index, are total shares - insiders shares and shares held by institutions.
I did not realize that the stock was being dropped from the Russell Value index and that this would result in funds tracking the value index selling.
Thank you for the question.
Could you please confirm if my understanding below is correct about DCTH stock, based on the latest conference call?
• FY25 Revenue Guidance: Projected at approximately $90 million.
• Market and Pricing Assumptions:
o Total Addressable Market (TAM) is estimated at 1,000 patients.
o The cost per treatment is around $187K.
• Site Expansion and Treatment Volume:
o By the end of December 2025, they plan to have 30 sites operating.
o Each site is expected to perform just under 2 treatments per month.
• FY26 Revenue Projection Calculation: Using the formula:
30 sitesĂ—1.9 treatments/monthĂ—12 monthsĂ—$187K≈$127M
This revenue run-rate is based on treating roughly 684 patients (i.e., $127M divided by $187K per treatment).
• Expense Outlook:
o SG&A expenses are expected to rise by 60% over 2024 levels.
o R&D expenses are forecasted to increase by 150%.
o In total, these expenses are projected to be about $85M (with $50M in SG&A and $35M in R&D).
• Profitability for FY26: With an estimated FY26 revenue of $127M and a gross margin of $107M, after deducting expenses of $85M, the EBITDA would be roughly $22M.
• Additional Trials and Upside: The other two trials—which target a larger TAM—aren't expected to complete approval until around 2030.
Given this timeline, there seems to be limited upside relative to the current market capitalization of $584M, and revenue growth might flatten from FY27 onward
Fair enough, but consider that DCTH has been beating estimates and the company is becoming an acquisition target for a larger player that could expedite scaling.